Nigeria’s economy grew at its fastest pace in four years in the second quarter, fueled by a sharp rebound in crude oil production. Gross domestic product rose 4.2% year-on-year in the three months through June, compared with 3.1% in the first quarter, beating the 3.6% median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg survey.
The acceleration was driven by the oil sector, which expanded 20.5% after barely growing in the previous quarter. Daily output climbed to 1.68 million barrels per day, the highest since the pandemic, from 1.41 million barrels a year earlier.
The stronger performance underscores the impact of President Bola Tinubu’s reforms aimed at stabilizing Nigeria’s energy industry. His government has tightened regulation and curbed vandalism in oil-producing regions, while international majors continue to exit onshore and shallow water assets due to security risks.
The momentum is expected to continue as Nigerian National Petroleum Corp. forecasts production rising above 2 million barrels per day this year and sustained through 2027. Chief Executive Bayo Ojulari said output could reach 3 million barrels daily by 2030, a level not seen in over a decade.
Beyond crude, Nigeria’s non-oil economy grew 3.6% from 3.2% in the prior quarter, led by agriculture, information and communications, and real estate. The latest data also reflects revisions to GDP calculations that emphasize the rising importance of real estate, now one of the largest sectors.
The combination of surging oil output and steady non-oil activity signals a stronger growth outlook for Africa’s biggest economy. With crude prices holding firm, Nigeria’s four-year-high GDP growth marks a rare alignment of oil windfalls and structural reforms that could define its recovery path.