People & Money

High stakes as Nigeria prepares for elections 2023

On 25 February, Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari signed the Electoral Bill into law, paving the way for federal and state elections on 25 February and 11 March 2023. Political parties need to elect their flagship candidates by 3 June this year.

The elections take place against a backdrop of complex economic, political and security challenges. And the outcomes of the polls will have far-reaching implications not only for Nigeria but the whole region, which faces political instability in the wake of several recent West African coups.

Economically, fluctuations in oil prices and output, and the payment of oil subsidies, have led to a revenue crisis. The government has allocated around 90% of revenue to servicing debt while turning to further domestic and international borrowing to meet other public expenditures. This continuous borrowing raises concerns about Nigeria’s debt sustainability. High unemployment (35%) and high inflation (15.6%) are equally concerning, and mean Nigerians face the dual challenge of lower incomes and higher expenses.

Politically, various rifts have developed along the lines of the country’s federation. The very legitimacy of the Nigerian federal state remains highly contested. This is evident in the agitations for a Biafran state and an Oduduwa Republic. These calls have reportedly escalated into violent confrontations between the secessionists, security forces and ordinary citizens.

Since the 2019 elections, violence, criminality and other forms of insecurity have worsened in Nigeria. In the north, terrorism destroys lives and livelihoods, while banditry has become an even deadlier threat. Since the last polls, there have been more deaths from banditry than terrorism.

Crime is also widespread in much of the south, and kidnapping for ransom and armed robberies have surged countrywide. The military is overstretched, and the police need deep institutional reform.

For many Nigerians, the 2023 polls present an important opportunity for a change in trajectory. Most attention will be on the ruling party candidates, the All Progressives Congress (APC), and the prominent opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP), given their dominance of the political space.

The amended Electoral Act permits parties to select frontrunners through direct, indirect and consensus procedures. The historically flawed nature of these processes raises little hope that quality leaders will be chosen. Patronage levels are high in the major parties, and the candidates who have declared their intentions have questionable political histories. Many are seen as the ‘usual suspects’ – career politicians who have been eyeing the presidency for several years and believe they deserve the position.

This is the narrative around the candidacy of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a former Lagos State governor and leading APC presidential aspirant, who was instrumental in the party’s formation and success. However there are questions about his health, political divisiveness, and allegations of corruption. There is also speculation about the potential candidacies of Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo and Transport Minister Rotimi Amaechi.

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