Nigeria’s food inflation rate stood at 39.84% in December 2024, deeply affecting households across the country. This was revealed yesterday by the NBS release of December 2024 CPI report. With food items accounting for a significant portion of consumer expenditure, the sharp rise in food prices has strained personal income and heightened food insecurity, especially among low-income populations.
In November 2024, Nigeria’s food inflation rate stood at 39.93% year-on-year (YoY), marking a 7.08% increase from the 32.84% recorded in November 2023. By December 2024, food inflation slightly decreased to 39.84% YoY, though this still represented a 5.91% increase from the 33.93% recorded in December 2023. On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, food inflation rose by 2.98% in November but decelerated to 2.66% in December, attributed to seasonal factors and a marginal reduction in price pressures.
Both reports attribute the high food inflation rates to significant increases in the prices of essential food items. These include:
Staples and Tubers: The prices of yam, water yam, and sweet potatoes have seen substantial increases. For instance, by January 2025, a tuber of yam in major markets like Lagos was selling for around NGN 2,500 compared to about NGN 1,000 at the start of 2024, reflecting a 150% increase.
Bread and Cereals: Rising costs of maize grains, rice, millet, and wheat products have been notable. As of January 2025, a bag of local rice (50kg) is now priced at approximately NGN 75,000, up from NGN 45,000 in January 2024, indicating a 67% increase.
Protein: Products like dried fish, goat meat, and frozen chicken have seen price surges. For example, the price of a kilogram of goat meat has jumped from NGN 3,000 to NGN 5,000, a 66% increase over the year.
Oils and Fats: Palm oil and vegetable oil have continued to experience significant price hikes. By early 2025, a litre of palm oil was selling for NGN 1,800, compared to NGN 1,200 in the same period the previous year, marking a 50% rise.
A closer comparison of the two months reveals subtle shifts in the inflationary landscape. The YoY food inflation rate showed a marginal decline in December (39.84%) compared to November (39.93%). However, this was largely a stabilization rather than a reversal of the upward trend. The MoM rate in December (2.66%) was significantly lower than November’s (2.98%), signaling some relief in price growth, potentially due to seasonal harvests or declining consumer purchasing power.
In December 2024, Sokoto led in year-on-year (YoY) food inflation with a staggering rate of 57.47%, followed by Zamfara at 46.39% and Edo at 46.32%. On the other hand, Ogun, Rivers, and Kwara recorded the slowest YoY increases at 34.24%, 35.43%, and 35.58%, respectively. Similarly, in November 2024, Sokoto recorded the highest YoY food inflation at 51.30%, with Yobe at 49.69% and Edo at 47.77%. The slowest increases in November were observed in Kwara (31.39%), Kogi (32.95%), and Rivers (33.27%)
Regional disparities in food price inflation highlight the uneven impact across Nigeria. In November, Sokoto recorded the highest YoY food inflation at 51.30%, followed by Yobe (49.69%) and Edo (47.77%). By December, Sokoto remained the leader at 57.47%, with Zamfara (46.39%) and Edo (46.32%) also ranking high. In contrast, states like Kwara, Kogi, and Rivers consistently reported the slowest food inflation rates, emphasizing regional variations in food supply chains and consumption patterns.
The slight moderation in MoM food inflation in December can be partly attributed to seasonal effects. Harvest periods in late 2024 likely increased food supply, albeit insufficient to significantly curb prices. However, holiday-driven demand during the festive season tempered the decline, keeping inflationary pressures high. Government interventions, such as subsidies or import waivers, appeared to have limited impact, given the entrenched structural challenges in food production and distribution.
The persistent rise in food prices has widespread socio-economic implications. High food inflation disproportionately affects low-income households, as food constitutes a larger share of their expenditures. Rising prices of essential food items reduce access to balanced diets, exacerbating malnutrition and health challenges. Tackling food inflation requires coordinated policies addressing supply chain inefficiencies, agricultural productivity, and market regulation.
The surge in food prices amidst rising inflation remains a pressing issue in Nigeria. While the marginal deceleration in December’s food inflation rate provides a glimmer of hope, the underlying structural issues persist. A sustainable solution will require long-term strategies focusing on boosting domestic agricultural production, stabilizing supply chains, and addressing regional disparities. Without these measures, the economic burden of food inflation will continue to weigh heavily on Nigeria’s population.
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