Far-right falls to third in France’s election despite first round lead

The far-right National Rally (RN) suffered a significant setback in the runoff round of France’s parliamentary elections, undermined by strategic electoral pacts between leftist factions and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrists.

Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella’s RN led the first round of voting on June 30, but slipped to third place in the second round held on Sunday. This shift was due to the victorious New Popular Front (NPF) alliance and Macron’s centrist group joining forces to prevent a split in the anti-RN vote.

Election Results

The New Popular Front and its allies secured 187 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly. Macron’s centrist group claimed 159 seats, while the National Rally and its allies managed to secure 142 seats, according to figures from the interior ministry. None of the three blocs achieved the 289 seats required for an outright majority.

‘Republican Front’ Strategy

The RN and its allies initially won 39 parliamentary seats in the first round and led the vote in 258 out of the 501 constituencies still contested in the second round. However, their early lead was overturned in two-thirds (109) of these constituencies. This happened after third-placed left-wing or centrist candidates withdrew to create direct contests between RN candidates and their closest mainstream rivals.

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This tactic, known as the “Republican Front,” has been used since 2002 to prevent the far-right from gaining power. For instance, on Sunday, left-wing lawmaker Francois Ruffin managed to overturn a seven-point first-round lead by his RN rival in Amiens after the centrist candidate withdrew and urged her supporters to back Ruffin. Similarly, Macron’s former prime minister Elisabeth Borne retained her seat in Calvados, Normandy, after the third-placed left-wing candidate stepped aside.

Voter Compliance

The key question leading up to the runoff was whether left-wing and centrist voters would support the remaining alternative to the far-right. Despite growing voter fatigue over being asked to “hold their noses” and vote for other parties to block the RN, they complied once again on Sunday.

The RN lost in the majority of duels, including 90 out of 152 constituencies against the left, 105 out of 128 against centrists, and 32 out of 39 against the centre-right.

RN’s Campaign and Limited Success

The RN, which focused its campaign on limiting immigration, restoring law and order, and boosting purchasing power, found more success in constituencies with three-way races, winning 10 out of 11 such contests where it led after the first round.

‘Victory Delayed’

Despite the setbacks, the RN can take some solace in the fact that nearly all of its outgoing 89 MPs were re-elected, with only eight incumbents losing their seats. In contrast, Macron’s camp saw a significant reduction, dropping from 250 seats to 159.

Le Pen celebrated the increase in RN’s seats from eight in 2022 to 142, calling it a “rising tide” of support. “It did not rise high enough this time, but it continues to rise and, consequently, our victory has only been delayed,” she declared, hinting at her intention to run for the presidency again in 2027.

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