Cold Comfort: COVID-19 Infection Rates in Warm Countries

Coronavirus cases have heightened anxiety around the world as reports claim that vaccines may not be available until 2021 and that the virus is mutating. Scientists have been studying its behaviour and susceptibility to various drugs, chemicals and most interestingly, weather conditions. Some efforts are also geared towards outsmarting the virus and mitigating the potential health disaster. There have been hypotheses on the significance of the climate to the survival rate of the virus. Does its level of potency change due to weather conditions? There seems to be some convincing evidence for it.

According to an experiment documented in the Lancet Microbe on April 2, exposing the virus to a high temperate decreased the number of viable viruses. Exposing it for 30 minutes at 56° Celsius completely eliminated the virus. An earlier study noted that 90% of global transmissions of the virus occurred when the temperature was as low as 3°Celsius to 17° Celsius.

Another study conducted about ten years ago by Kate Templeton of the University of Edinburgh examined three coronaviruses. The findings revealed that these viruses were most potent between December and April when it is coldest. But there are reasons one should not jump for joy just yet. Getting a temperature of 56° Celsius in the atmosphere outside of a lab is rather difficult. Also, the weather forecasts expecting the virus to “slow down” in the summer cannot be applied globally. For instance, Africa’s hot seasons do not occur simultaneously with Western climates.

As scientists figure out the impact of weather conditions on the virus, we examine the rates in some of the warmest countries in the world.

Mali

Mali is one of the hottest countries in the world. With 65% of the country covered in desert-land, it receives negligible rainfall. The country recorded its first case on March 25. So far, it has 171 cases, 13 deaths, and 34 recoveries.

Sudan

Sudan has a remarkably low rate, with 66 confirmed cases of coronavirus. Things may soon get even better for Sudan due to the closeness of its hottest, usually between April and July, with an average of 39° Celsius.

Tunisia

Tunisia is one of the warmest countries in the world. It recorded the COVID-19 pandemic on March 8. It has surpassed 800 cases, with 43 recovered and 37 deaths.

Kuwait

Kuwait is known as one of the hottest places on Earth, with scientists raising alarm over its increasingly hot temperatures. The country temperatures hit up to 50° Celsius regularly. But it has not been spared from the pandemic either. Since its first case on February 25, Kuwait has now recorded 1,658 cases, with 5 deaths and 258 recoveries.

Burkina Faso

Burkina Faso is known for its sweltering heat that persists all year round even during its rainy season. It has recorded more than 500 cases of coronavirus, 35 deaths, and almost 300 recovery cases. Its first case was reported on March 9.

Senegal

Senegal recorded its highest cases of COVID-19 on March 30 with 20 cases. It has more than 300 confirmed cases, 2 deaths, and 198 recoveries.

Qatar

Qatar is “oven-temperature hot” for its harsh climate. The atmosphere gets very heated, especially between May and October. But its staggering statistics just might put a dent in our theory. Qatar recorded its first index case of coronavirus on February 29. Now, it has surpassed 4,600 cases with 464 recoveries, and 7 deaths.

It is difficult to compare the rates to the coldest countries. While some countries with cold climates do have significantly higher rates in comparison – Russia, Canada, and the United States have more cases.  It is too early to tell if it is entirely owing to their cold climates. It is important to note that climate is not the only relevant factor in coronavirus transmission. Other factors like individual economic sustainability, social distancing measures, the timing of border closure, and predominant lifestyle also play a role in determining how wide the virus spreads in different countries. Dr. Anthony Fauci, a Director at the United States’ National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, had dismissed reports that the virus will slow down in the summer.

All figures are sourced from Worldometer, 8a.m April 18.