China’s goods trade surplus has exceeded $1tn for the first time on record after a rebound in exports boosted external earnings despite the continuation of U.S. tariff measures.
New customs data covering the first eleven months of 2025 showed a surplus of about $1.076tn, surpassing the full-year figure for 2024, which had already approached the $1tn mark. The milestone follows a temporary easing of U.S.–China trade tensions after both sides agreed a one-year truce in October.
The scale of the surplus has attracted renewed criticism from trading partners, including France, where President Emmanuel Macron recently described China’s trade advantage as “unbearable” during a visit to Beijing.
Exports Rebound as Trans-shipment Grows
Exports rose almost 6 per cent year-on-year in November after an unexpected decline in October, while imports climbed just below 2 per cent, creating a monthly goods surplus of more than $110bn.
Sales to the United States fell sharply to nearly 30 per cent compared with a year earlier, as tariff pressures continue to weigh on direct bilateral flows. However, shipments to Southeast Asian economies have accelerated and are believed by economists to be increasingly routed onward to the U.S., a practice known as trade re-routing.
Analysts say this reflects stable American consumer demand, even though Chinese shipments are indirectly bypassing tariff barriers through third countries.
Domestic slowdown pushes reliance on exports
China’s export-heavy growth model has become more prominent as weak household spending and a protracted property downturn limit domestic momentum. At a recent Communist Party economic planning meeting, President Xi Jinping called for stronger consumption, while also urging the development of new industrial “growth drivers” such as electric vehicles and robotics, the same sectors fuelling China’s recent export strength.
A notable jump in exports to the European Union also supported November’s performance, with shipments to the bloc rising nearly 15 per cent after flat growth a month earlier. Economists say the weaker renminbi helped make Chinese products more competitive, widening Beijing’s trade advantage.
Most analysts expect China’s export strength to continue into next year, but warn that growing political scrutiny in Europe and the United States could lead to new tariff measures. A slower global economy is also expected to weigh on demand.
Even so, major banks argue China could still expand its share of global manufacturing exports to more than 16 per cent by 2030 due to its dominance in fast-growing industries. Economists also believe trade rerouting will continue to offset the impact of U.S. trade restrictions, potentially pushing China’s surplus even higher next year.