Armed Conflict Imminent as India – Pakistan Tensions Escalate Following Kashmir Killings

Tensions between India and Pakistan have escalated following the killing of 26 men at a popular tourist destination in Indian Kashmir on Tuesday, in the worst attack on civilians in India since the 2008 Mumbai shootings.

In the aftermath of the attacks, India has said that there were cross-border elements to the attack, with the Indian police publishing notices naming three suspects and saying two were Pakistanis, an allegation which has not been proven.

Renewed India-Pakistani Tensions

This incident has taken relations between the nuclear-armed neighbours, who have fought three wars, to the lowest level in years. The Muslim dominated Kashmir region has been at the heart of the animosity between India and Pakistan, with both claiming it in full and ruling it in part. It has been the cause of two of their three wars and also witnessed a bloody insurgency against Indian rule.

In the immediate aftermath of the event, India suspended a 1960 treaty on sharing the waters of the Indus River and closed the only land crossing between the neighbors.

In retaliation, Pakistan said it was closing its air space to Indian-owned or operated airlines, suspending all trade including through third countries and halting special South Asian visas issued to Indian nationals.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister’s office has also said the country was going to halt all bilateral accords with India, including the 1972 Simla Agreement signed after the third war between the two countries which lays down principles meant to govern bilateral relations, including respect for a ceasefire line in Kashmir.

Fresh War Imminent

Pakistan has rejected India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and said that any attempt to stop or divert water belonging to Pakistan would be considered an “act of war and responded with full force across the complete spectrum of national power”.

The treaty which was mediated by the World Bank split the Indus River and its tributaries between the neighbours thus regulated the sharing of water amongst both nations. Pakistan is heavily dependent on water flowing downstream from this river system from India for its hydropower and irrigation needs. and suspending the treaty would allow India to deny Pakistan its share of the waters.

 

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