Adeyemi-Bero : Nigeria Should Be Producing Up to 4 Million Barrels of Oil Per Day

In a recent address at the Heirs Energies Leadership Forum 2025 in Abuja, Adewale Adeyemi-Bero, Chairman of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Board of Governors, emphasized Nigeria’s potential to significantly boost its crude oil production. Drawing attention to the nation’s substantial hydrocarbon reserves, Adeyemi-Bero asserted that Nigeria should be producing between 2.5 to 4 million barrels per day (bpd), far exceeding its current output levels.

As of November 2024, Nigeria’s oil production stood at approximately 1.8 million bpd, with projections to reach 2 million bpd by the end of 2024.

This figure remains below the country’s long-term target of 4 million bpd by 2030, a goal reiterated by the government in October 2024.

Adeyemi-Bero highlighted that key OPEC member states and global stakeholders recognize Nigeria’s capacity to achieve and sustain higher production levels. He emphasized the necessity of addressing “above-ground risks,” such as security challenges and infrastructural deficiencies, to unlock the nation’s full production potential.

Efforts to combat oil theft and pipeline vandalism have been intensified, with operations like “Delta Sanity” launched to secure oil infrastructure in the Niger Delta region. These initiatives aim to create a conducive environment for increased production and attract foreign investment.

The Nigerian government has also been proactive in fostering investment in the oil and gas sector. In 2024, the country aimed to attract $10 billion in fresh investments, underscoring its commitment to enhancing production capacity and achieving its ambitious targets.

While Nigeria possesses the hydrocarbon reserves and resource base to elevate its oil production to 4 million bpd, realizing this potential necessitates concerted efforts to mitigate security concerns, improve infrastructure, and attract sustained investment. The insights from industry leaders like Adeyemi-Bero serve as a clarion call for stakeholders to collaborate in unlocking Nigeria’s full oil production capabilities.

Why Nigeria’s Oil Production May Rise

Despite past production challenges, Nigeria’s crude oil output is poised for significant growth due to a combination of government policies, regulatory reforms, and strategic asset sales. The administration of President Bola Tinubu has implemented measures to remove obstacles hindering production and attract fresh investments into the oil and gas sector.

1. Presidential Executive Orders on Oil & Gas Reforms

In early 2024, President Tinubu signed a set of Executive Orders aimed at streamlining regulatory approvals, reducing bureaucratic delays, and incentivizing investments in oil production. These orders addressed long-standing concerns about overlapping regulations and inefficiencies that discouraged investors. The reforms include:

• Accelerated Licensing and Approvals: Reducing the time required for exploration and production approvals.
• Tax Incentives: Providing fiscal incentives to encourage upstream investments.
• Infrastructure Development: Prioritizing the development of pipelines and export terminals to enhance crude evacuation.

These policies create a more investor-friendly climate, reducing uncertainties that previously discouraged oil majors and indigenous companies from expanding production.

2. Approval of IOC Asset Sales to Nigerian Companies

One of the most transformative developments in Nigeria’s oil industry is the sale of International Oil Companies’ (IOC) onshore and shallow-water assets to Nigerian firms. Following years of regulatory delays, the government has now approved the transfer of assets from Shell, ExxonMobil, and other IOCs to Nigerian independent operators.

Key benefits of these asset sales include:

• Increased Local Participation: Nigerian companies have a greater incentive to ramp up production, unlike IOCs that prioritized offshore developments.
• Improved Security and Community Relations: Indigenous operators are better positioned to negotiate with host communities, reducing the risk of pipeline sabotage and disruptions.
• Greater Investment in Marginal Fields: Many of the assets sold include underdeveloped fields with significant reserves, which Nigerian operators are now working to bring online.

3. Crackdown on Oil Theft and Sabotage

The government has intensified efforts to combat oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and illegal refining, which have historically constrained production. Security operations such as “Operation Delta Sanity” have helped reduce crude losses, while new technology is being deployed to monitor pipeline networks. With enhanced security, Nigeria can recover the hundreds of thousands of barrels lost daily to illegal activities.

4. Improved Investment Climate and Regulatory Stability

Since the passage of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) in 2021, Nigeria has gradually enhanced regulatory clarity in the oil sector. The government is now working on fine-tuning fiscal terms to attract new investments, particularly in deepwater and marginal fields.

Additionally, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) is advancing partnerships with international and domestic firms to boost output, with a goal of reaching 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of 2025 and moving closer to the 4 million bpd target.

With these structural reforms, security measures, and asset transfers, Nigeria is on track to expand its crude oil production. While challenges remain, the combined impact of these factors makes it increasingly likely that Nigeria will see a sustained rise in oil output, unlocking new revenue streams and reinforcing its position as Africa’s largest oil producer.

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